www.greenisthenewpink.org: Wildfires and Global Warming: What's the Real Deal?

For the last few weeks wildfires burned their way through California, sparking the debate whether these fires were a result of climate change. Is this disaster that caused the largest evacuation in California state history just a taste of what is to come? Has climate change accelerated this quickly?

There have been all sorts of "news" reports (we use that term lightly...) on the topic which ran the gamut from "global warming causes wild fires" to "the fires have nothing to do with climate change" and everything in between. Confused? We were! So Green is the New Pink did a little investigating and now we'll break it all down for you...

Have their really been more wildfires lately or is that just media hype?

SADLY, IT'S THE TRUTH.

According to the NRDC, the 2006 wildland fire season set new records in both the number of reported fires and in acres burned. There were close to 100,000 fires and nearly 10 million acres burned, 125 % above the 10-year average.

As of October 29, 2007, 76,451 large fires have burned 8,251,275 acres. That puts 2007 on a pace to rival the record-setting 2006 fire season.
There were four times as many major wildfires between 1986 and 2004 as there were from 1970 to 1986, and a six-fold increase in the area of forest burned in the Western United States.
The wildfire season has also extended by 78 days in the period of 1987 to 2003 compared to 1970 through 1986. (This does not include the last few years which were some of the most intense on record).

Is Global Warming to blame for the increased, more intense wildfires?

YES, ALONG WITH OTHER FACTORS. As with any event in nature, you usually can't pin down just ONE CAUSE for something. Our eco system is a complex inter-related system where a variety of factors contribute to natural disasters. However, with that being said,

In a scientific paper published in 2006, by Tom Swetnam of the University of Arizona’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, and Anthony Westerling, of the University of California-San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, it was concluded that the changing climate was a greater influence on wildfire activity and intensity than forest management. (Click here for the whole study) . Here's how Westerling explained it:

"What really drives the fire season is the temperature. When you have a warm spring and early summer, you get earlier snowmelt. With the snowmelt coming out a month earlier, areas then get drier earlier overall and there is a longer season in which a fire can be started—there's more opportunity for ignition."

So because global warming can cause higher temperatures and drought conditions (another factor in fires spreading...the drier the landscape, the quicker it burns), it is a very large factor in why wildfires have been so intense and so prevalent in recent years.

So does that mean these fires are caused by global warming?

NO. YOU STILL NEED THAT INITIAL SPARK TO ACTUALLY START A FIRE. This could come from a variety of sources...campfires, an accidental lit match, arson or lightning. HOWEVER...once a fire starts, global warming is responsible for the conditions (see above) which cause the fires to be so much more intense and to last for so much longer.

If Global Warming is to blame for the increase in wildfires, why did the Los Angeles Times say that "Global Warming not a factor" in the current Southern California fires?

BECAUSE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATE IS DIFFERENT THAN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. The same climate study noted above "found Southern California was different from the rest of the West, with no increase in the frequency of fire as temperatures rose." As Westerling explains: "In Southern California, it's hot and dry much of the year." Thus, we are not as affected by early springs and snowmelt, because we CONSISTENTLY have fire-prone weather. Not exactly great news.

In addition, in the future, global warming could make Southern California's droughts even more persistent, exacerbating the fire danger. Global warming could also intensify wind flow (another factor in how far the wildfires spread) by increasing the difference between inland and coastal temperatures. So whether or not these SoCal fires have been impacted at all by global warming, the Times reports that in the future fires in Southern California will most likely be negatively impacted by the effects of global warming.

The Bottom Line?

While non-global warming believers will try to convince that the link between wildfires and climate change is hype, there IS an undeniable connection between the two which will only increase in the coming years (unless we are able to combat the causes of global warming).